Source-audited public forecasts

Fusion promise drift

A dated record of what fusion programs said would happen—and what actually did. Vertical position shows the years remaining when each forecast was made. Checks mark observed achievements; X marks a target date that passed without a matching public achievement verified in this audit.

Fusion promise drift chart Dated public fusion targets plotted by statement date and years remaining until the promised target.
Outcome ✓observed achievement ×date passed; no verified achievement ○not yet due
Connections same performance milestone Diagonal guides = fixed target year

Scope rule: The chart includes only dated performance claims: prospective net-electricity, fusion-gain, plasma-Q, and Lawson milestones, plus observed NIF target-gain achievements. Construction, first-plasma, commissioning, and grid-delivery dates are excluded because they do not establish fusion performance. Pacific Fusion remains unplotted because the reviewed source provides no dated target.